Good morning traders. Hope the weekend treated you well.

Last week gave us everything. Geopolitics, a jobs number that blindsided just about every desk on Wall Street, a dollar that remembered it has teeth, and gold getting hit to three month lows in what felt like a very aggressive Friday afternoon. If you missed the full breakdown, the Friday wrap is live on the site. Worth the read before you open a chart this week.

Because this week? This week is potentially bigger.

Before we get into it, if you are not already on the free Telegram channel, that is where I post my pre market reads and live notes throughout the session. No noise, no spam. Just the real time context. Join us at t.me/thecaymantrader.

The Week That Matters: Three Things on the Radar

Wednesday June 10. US CPI. 8:30 Eastern. Full stop.

This is the number of the week. Of the month, arguably. May Consumer Price Index data drops Wednesday morning and given everything that happened Friday, the stakes could not be higher.

Here is why. April CPI already came in hot at 3.8% year over year. Energy drove a big chunk of that, up 3.8% in a single month, but shelter was also climbing. Now layer on top of that a May NFP that destroyed expectations and suddenly the market is staring at a very uncomfortable question. What if inflation is not done?

Remember the good news is bad news dynamic we talked about in the Friday wrap. That logic cuts both ways. A hot CPI print Wednesday would be the second body blow in five days. It would accelerate the repricing of rate hike risk, hit bonds, support the Dollar further, and put serious pressure on any gold recovery attempt off that 4,300 floor. On the other hand, a softer print could give the metals some breathing room and take some heat off equities heading into the FOMC.

The Fed meets June 16 to 17. That is next week. The market is pricing a high probability of a hold at 3.5 to 3.75%. Nobody seriously expects a move. But what Warsh SAYS in that press conference, especially in the context of a hot NFP followed by whatever CPI delivers Wednesday, is going to set the tone for the summer. Watch the dot plot. Watch the language around the July meeting. Here at Cayman we will be paying close attention to let you know the hawkish or dovish talking points.

Gold at 4,300. Now What?

Friday closed near three month lows and heading into the week open the question is simple. Is this a flush and recovery or the start of something more sustained to the downside?

My read is that 4,300 is significant. Not because of some arbitrary round number psychology, though that matters, but because the broader bull thesis has not changed. The world has not become less uncertain. Iran has not been resolved. Central banks have not stopped accumulating. The fundamental bid under gold is structural and a strong NFP does not erase any of that.

What it does do is remove a short term catalyst for upside. If CPI Wednesday comes in above expectations, gold tests lower. If it prints cool, you could see a very fast recovery back toward 4,450 to 4,500 as the rate hike narrative gets walked back. Either way, Wednesday morning sets the tone for the rest of the session week.

The Dollar and the Pairs to Watch

EUR/USD ended the week cracking back toward 1.1500 off the NFP beat. That is a level I am watching closely at the London open Monday. Post NFP Dollar strength has a habit of either extending aggressively in the Asian session or giving a partial retracement before the real move confirms. I want to see how price behaves at that 1.15 area before committing to a direction.

GBP/USD is in the 1.33 handle and has UK labour data dropping Tuesday. Any weakness there compounds the Dollar strength story and could set up a clean continuation lower. Worth having on the screen.

The Bottom Line for This Week

You have NFP shock still reverberating. You have CPI Wednesday that either confirms or contradicts the rate hike narrative. You have an FOMC next week already casting its shadow. And you have Iran as the permanent wildcard in the background, capable of rewriting any of the above on any given morning.

This is a week for preparation, defined levels, and the discipline to wait for the setup rather than chase the noise. Here at Cayman, we have the nitty gritty covered and our telegram will keep you in rhythm so join up today and get our perspectives as they emerge in these volatile times.

If you want to track your trades through a week like this properly, the Beast Journal at caymantradefx.com/trade_journal is free and it lives in your own Google Sheet. Log the entries, the levels, the outcome. The pattern you are building in your own data is the most honest mentor you will ever have.

Levels, bias, and session notes will be on the Telegram as we move through the week. See you in the channel.

Trade with The Cayman Trader. No desk required. โ€” Andrew