Last week the market repriced the Fed in forty eight hours. This week we will find out if it was right. The June FOMC minutes drop Wednesday, and they matter more than minutes usually do, because that meeting produced a committee split straight down the middle. With nine officials projecting at least one more hike this year and nine projecting none or lower, on Wednesday we get to read the arguments.
Beyond that, the calendar is quieter than last week, which is its own kind of danger. Thin data weeks let positioning and narrative drive price. Here is what matters and what to watch.
Event One: The FOMC Minutes, Wednesday
The June meeting kept rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, but the projections revealed a Fed at war with itself. Half the committee wants to keep hiking. Half thinks the job is done or overdone. Then June payrolls came in at 57,000 and handed the doves their best evidence in months. The minutes were written before that jobs report existed, so read them as a map of where each camp stands, not as a reaction to the new data.
What moves markets Wednesday is the texture of the hawkish argument. If the minutes show the hiking camp anchored on wage growth and services inflation, the soft NFP undercuts them and the market keeps fading September. If the hawks are anchored on inflation expectations and energy passthrough, the falling oil price does the same job. September is priced at roughly a coin flip right now, down from two thirds before the jobs report. The minutes will push that number one way or the other, and gold and the dollar will move with it.
Event Two: Gold Defending New Ground
Gold enters the week around $4,140, holding most of the gains from Thursday’s jobs driven rally but pulling back from two week highs this morning as the dollar firms. The technical picture has genuinely improved. The metal broke above the $4,110 to $4,127 resistance zone late last week, and that area now flips to first support, with the $4,080 to $4,091 zone right underneath it. Below all of that sits the $3,960 floor that has now been defended three times.
Above, the targets stack up cleanly. First $4,225, where sellers are expected to reappear. Then the $4,277 to $4,310 zone, which also happens to be where JPMorgan sees gold capped for the third quarter. A weekly close above $4,300 would change the conversation entirely and put $4,500 back into play. That is not this week’s business unless the minutes deliver a genuinely dovish surprise, but the road map is worth knowing.
My read: the burden of proof has shifted. For a month the question was whether gold could stop falling. Now the question is whether the bounce holds its first retest. Watch how the metal behaves at $4,080 to $4,091 if the dollar keeps firming into Wednesday. Buyers defending that zone tell you the low is likely in for now. A fast break below it and $3,960 gets test number four, and fourth tests have a way of failing.
Event Three: EUR/USD at the Ceiling
The euro finally broke its 1.1400 cap last week and immediately found the next one. The pair reached the 1.1470 to 1.1480 resistance zone, sellers held it, and price is fading from that area as the new week opens. The dollar has recouped most of its post NFP losses, which tells you something important: one soft jobs report was not enough to break the dollar’s spine. It bent. It did not break.
The levels this week are clean. Resistance at 1.1480, then 1.1500, and the big macro barrier at 1.1620 that defines the whole bearish structure. Support at 1.1400, and below that the June low at 1.1324. The Wednesday minutes are the likely decider. Hawkish texture and the pair rolls back toward 1.1400 with the June low in the conversation. Dovish texture and 1.1500 breaks, with room toward the 1.1600 area. Until one of those happens, this is a range and should be traded like one.
The Iran Situation: Quiet Is Not Resolved
The ceasefire is holding, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz keeps recovering, and OPEC+ has agreed to raise production quotas for August. Oil is drifting lower on glut concerns, with WTI in the low seventies and regional producers cutting prices to compete for buyers. From a pure market perspective, the war premium is nearly gone.
Two things keep this on the watch list. First, the 60 day negotiating window from the June MOU runs out in roughly mid August, and the hard issues, the nuclear program, sanctions mechanics, and who controls passage through the Strait, are all still open. Iranian officials have floated a transit fee on Hormuz once the interim period expires. Second, cheap oil is currently doing the Fed’s work on inflation, which is part of why rate hike odds are falling. If the diplomacy wobbles and oil reverses, that entire chain runs backward: oil up, inflation fear up, hike odds up, dollar up, gold down. The Iran story and the Fed story are the same story wearing different hats. Do not track one without the other.
The Rest of the Calendar
ISM Services PMI lands today at the US open, and with manufacturing already soft, a services miss would feed the cooling economy narrative ahead of Wednesday. Weekly jobless claims come Thursday and get extra attention now that the labour market is officially in question. The main event most traders are already positioning for is next week: June CPI on July 14, the last major inflation print before the July 29 Fed decision. This week is the setup. Next week is the verdict.
The Setup Heading Into the Week
Gold: $4,140 area to start. Support $4,110 then $4,080 to $4,091, with the $3,960 floor below. Resistance $4,225, then $4,277 to $4,310. The minutes are the catalyst.
EUR/USD: capped at 1.1480. Support 1.1400, then the June low at 1.1324. Range until Wednesday proves otherwise.
Oil: WTI low seventies and heavy. Resistance in the $72.70 to $73.20 zone. Glut narrative in control unless the Iran diplomacy cracks.
The dollar: bent by NFP, not broken. Firm to start the week. The minutes decide whether it gets its legs back or the September repricing continues.
One event that matters, two markets sitting at their lines, and a peace deal on a timer. Set your levels before Wednesday, because the minutes will not wait for you to catch up.